# Replication Package: Demographics and Asset Returns — The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier

## Overview
This folder contains all files needed to replicate the analysis in "Demographics and Asset Returns." The paper confirms the Kopecky-Taylor murder-suicide hypothesis: aging depresses safe interest rates (Z1=45.6** on 10-year yields) but has no effect on equity capitalization (p=0.862). The mechanism is demand-side (KT), not supply-side, as Z1 survives investment/GDP controls.

## Requirements
- Python 3.10+
- pandas, numpy, scipy, statsmodels
- Data files in data/processed/

## Structure
- `scripts/` — Analysis scripts (run in phase order)
- `src/` — Shared modules (PanelGLS estimator, data loading, country classifications)
- `data/processed/` — Processed panel data (asset_panel.csv)
- `output/tables/` — Generated output tables
- `paper/` — Paper manuscript and references

## Reproduction
Run scripts in numerical phase order:
```
python scripts/phase1_data_assembly.py
python scripts/phase2_safe_rates.py
python scripts/phase3_exchange_rates.py
python scripts/phase4_housing.py
python scripts/phase5_equity.py
python scripts/phase6_robustness.py
python scripts/phase7_cointegration.py
```

## Data Sources
- UN World Population Prospects 2024
- IMF World Economic Outlook
- Penn World Table 10.01
- Chinn-Ito KAOPEN Index
- Lane & Milesi-Ferretti External Wealth of Nations
- BIS Real Effective Exchange Rates
- BIS Residential Property Prices

## Notes
- All analysis uses the 140-country expanded panel (EBA-49 + SSA-20 + EU expansion + Tier 1 expansion)
- The `src/` modules are from the multilateral/followup project and contain the expanded country lists
- Housing results are SPURIOUS — collapse with GDP/capita control
- Bond yield data is OECD-only (23 countries)
- 5yr lag strengthens results (Z1_lag5=50.7***, p<0.001)
